U.S. House of Representatives just two days ago to discuss a problem the RMB exchange rate issue. It is said that the exchange rate we can not solve, it is the PBC or the SAFE discussion. I am from a personal point of view some of the points raised:
From the textile point of view, should be said that textile exports since 2000, with exports of goods throughout the national growth rate is the same, basically to keep 20% to 30% growth. Now, according to People's Bank of analysis, 25% foreign, 30% of China's own money, after all our exports are very large, the growth from the appearances, clothing products are competitive, the competitiveness of major from three aspects, one is the growth of the institutional obstacles reasons, because the development of SMEs, non state economic development, in our exports, foreign investment accounted for 1 4 a share.
The second is export oriented strategies, including attracting foreign investment, the development of processing trade export growth on the whole played an important role.From the World Bank Ye Hao, Ye Hao from China's research institutions to analyze our exchange rate, such as the World Bank to achieve a maximum ratio of 3.7, virtually impossible, Center for Economic Research of Peking University to do a ratio of 5.1. In fact the problems we are facing problems with the Japanese 20 years ago is the same as the Japanese 20 years ago, one U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen about 250, from the 1986 surge in the yen, in a few years the Japanese manufacturing industry appeared empty , resulting in a large number of manufacturing failures. Now it is difficult to say when the yuan appreciation, a lot of pressure, if we two, three, five face appreciation of Renminbi, or yuan has appreciated, and appreciation to the 8.1,8.078, which would affect much larger.
We are value added part of the small, value added 30% value added very little clothing, if the exchange rate rose, and the competitiveness will be greatly affected, in this sense, the possibility of a small devaluation of the renminbi seems now , appreciation of the possibilities, to our labor intensive industry, is also an important gateway to adjust strategy. The second issue is the so called post quota era. May 5 to May 6 will be the world's trade ministers formally organized than the world trade ministers will affect even greater, meeting to discuss quota in 2005, many places in the United States is very concerned about the post quota era, I think today from United States specific quota market to analyze the situation faced by some. From the textile point of view, May 31, according to the statistics, we have accounted for 23.5% of U.S. textile imports, nearly 1 4. Because today we have maintained a 53.8% growth from the textile market by the end of this year, certainly more than the U.S. import market run 1 4 share, according to this very quickly up to 30%, 40%, mainly because with the abolition of quotas is mainly some less quota.
Abolition of quotas on our growth yarn, including the impact of manufactured goods, from clothes look into four categories, first is the silk hemp clothing, in May this year, an increase of 101% and now account for U.S. imports of clothing exports 67.3%, U.S. imports of linen garments, mainly from China, so the potential of silk hemp clothing has been very small. Then again is definitely a price war, now nearly four years saw an average price of all four U.S. dollars, fell further down is 3.5 U.S. dollars a.Cotton clothing is the most stringent protection of the U.S. quota market, we now account for only 6.0% market share in the United States, this point of view, growth in cotton apparel relatively large, if we abolish the quota, cotton clothing will no doubt be the fastest growing in China.In addition, wool clothing exports to the U.S. in 2001 3.8 billion, only 3.3 billion U.S. dollars in 2002, so this year we think will have 3.5 billion or 40 billion market, we now account for 8% of the market, accounting for the gross Italy 20% of clothing, wool clothing so that China, ranked sixth in the fifth, in front of the United Kingdom, Germany, mainly by quality and by brand, seems to share in this market will not be the same as the share of cotton to remove quickly.
There are chemical fiber clothing market, we now account for 8% of the share, which is a relatively large market potential, of course, is the number of quotas, or import from the U.S. market is concerned. We know that after the abolition of quotas, a great one is to enter the United States, I simply made the U.S. an analysis of domestic production, U.S. production of intermediate products was 35 billion U.S. dollars, such as gauze products of these raw materials. It's also 33 billion U.S. dollars of textile manufacturing, such as home textiles, textile products currently 330 million. Clothing should be current production level of 500 billion dollars, part of the Chinese garment enterprises may crowd out the market. U.S. carpet imports totaled only 800 million U.S. dollars, but America's own market of 200 million, because the United States carpet they have a strong competitive edge. There is a piece of the fashion market, the Chinese people want to enter the U.S. fashion market, fashion market with a completely different pair of jeans and shirt, directly into the store in New York was not easy for China.
The third I think the current level of competition clothing is very high, very high degree of international industry, it should be said several ways, one is industrial clusters like development, such as the recent I read Wenzhou clothing, the original comparison Fensan now Wenzhou faster growth in foreign trade, all cluster style. Clothing is a high competitive labor intensive industries, appear the phenomenon of cluster development, or trend, our entire country's manufacturing sector is also the case west of manufacturing are in development, both high tech or traditional manufacturing industries. The faster the more traditional development along the coast, it is the basis of the market, more products of Zhejiang little more traditional occupation of the market may be higher, as the international level to improve, access to global supply chain, industrial chain link inside.
In addition, textile investment is still relatively fast growth, the new round of industrial restructuring, regional restructuring, no company that has benefited greatly because of the elimination of quotas, because of competition have turned into a free market, free market competition on price, the original market orderly, buy quotas Ye Hao, sharing quota Or is orderly, and now the market is not orderly, and grab that is me, scrambling is mainly the price, it should be said that the industry competitive environment, there are great competitive atmosphere changes, from the main business investment, personal investment or private economic investment in the subject, the market is open competition, free competition, the junior competition, which is not very healthy development of the industry.
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